MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
HURRICANE DECISION SUPPORT TEAM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT
Situational Awareness Statement #3: Tropical Storm Jose- Update
Time: 4:30 PM
This afternoon, the National Weather Service provided some additional information regarding potential impacts of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Jose as it approaches Massachusetts next week. The bulk of these impacts will take place starting on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, although high surf and rip currents associated with Jose could reach the New England coast as soon as this coming Sunday. At this time, there seems to be three potential scenarios depending on Jose’s exact track and intensity as it nears New England:
1) Scenario 1: Low End Category 1 Hurricane Passes Over Cape/Islands
Low end Category 1 hurricane with 65 to 85 mph wind gusts across the southeast New England coast. Numerous power outages and significant tree damage.
Moderate to major coastal flooding and severe beach erosion. Flooded and damaged shore roads during high tide along with some property damage.
3 to 6 inches of rain falling in a short period of time resulting in urban flooding.
25 to 35 foot seas just offshore resulting in dangerous conditions for mariners.
2) Scenario 2: Tropical Storm Passes Close To Cape/Islands
Tropical storm brings wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph, strongest of those across the Cape and Islands. Scattered tree damage and power outages.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding with significant beach erosion possible. Flooded shore roads and minor property damage during high tide.
2 to 4 inches of rain in a short period of time may result in some urban street flooding.
15 to 25 foot seas just offshore resulting in dangerous conditions for mariners.
3) Scenario 3: Jose Stays Farther South and East
35 to 45 mph wind gusts mainly along the coast with a few downed trees/isolated power outages, but no major impacts on land.
Moderate beach erosion.
Less than 1 inch of rain.
10 to 15 foot seas just offshore
This far out, forecast track errors average 150 to 200 miles, so it is not possible at this time to tell which of the three scenarios above is most likely to occur. Confidence in Jose’s forecast track will increase through the weekend.
National Hurricane Center Forecast:
MEMA continues to monitor Jose’s progress and forecasts and will issue Situational Awareness Statements at least daily so long as there is a risk of significant impacts from the storm. As confidence in Jose’s track and intensity grows, MEMA will initiate pre-landfall planning, including conference calls with municipalities and stakeholders, if the storm may make landfall in southern New England or pass close enough by Massachusetts to cause significant impacts. At this time, we anticipate holding our first statewide briefing call with municipal officials, state and federal partners, and other stakeholders on Sunday afternoon or Monday.