The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from now until further notice for Dukes Nantucket Bristol Plymouth and Barnstable Counties. Time Sent: 2016-09-04 17:02
MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT #7
DATE: September 4, 2016
TIME: 4:00 PM
SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Hermine
There have been no significant changes to the forecast since this morning. Hermine remains a post-tropical storm approximately 290 miles south of Nantucket. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for Barnstable, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties as well as near shore and coastal waters. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Dukes and Nantucket Counties as well as southern offshore waters. It is likely that at least some of the Watch areas will be upgraded to a Warning by early this evening. The primary concern continues to be the wind threat associated with Hermine. Winds are expected to begin impacting the area around midnight tonight and continue into early afternoon tomorrow with peak winds of 35-50 mph expected tomorrow early morning to mid-morning for areas under Tropical
Storm Warning. Eastern Massachusetts should expect 25-35 mph wind gusts tonight into Monday. There remains a low risk for a secondary weaker wind threat on Tuesday.
Forecast and Impacts:
Hermine is expected to continue east-northeast before turning more north tomorrow, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion Monday into Tuesday. The center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. While little change in strength is expected today, Hermine is forecast to intensify to Hurricane Force late Monday before again weakening as it tracks north. Hermine continues to have a large wind field with Tropical Storm force winds extending outward up to 205 miles from the center. The wind threat from Hermine is expected to come in two pulses, with the strongest pulse from midnight tonight to tomorrow early afternoon. Scattered tree and power line damage is possible along the south coast area, where Tropical Storm force winds are most likely,
with more isolated downed tree limbs possible across eastern Massachusetts into Monday. A second weaker pulse is possible Tuesday as the storm pulls away. Despite the winds not being too extreme, drought exhausted trees could fall more easily. Expect a long duration of high surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion and wind gusts to Tropical Storm force on the southern waters and south coast and Islands. The tides of greatest potential impact are midnight tonight and 12 noon tomorrow. There is a low risk for minor coastal flooding, and riverine flooding is not expected to pose a significant threat due to ongoing drought conditions across much of the Commonwealth.
National Weather Service has provided the following most likely scenario at this time:
* 30-50 mph wind gusts with the strongest winds focused along the immediate South Coast, especially the Islands.
* Up to 1 to 2 inches of rain, focused mainly across Cape Cod and the Islands
* Rough surf and dangerous rip currents
* Minor beach erosion
* Marine impacts with wind gusts to 45 knots, and seas 15 - 20 feet over southern waters
National Weather Service has provided the following reasonable worst case scenario at this time (if Hermine takes a more northerly track than forecast by tomorrow):
* 40-50 mph wind gusts farther inland to the RI/CT border, with more gusts to 50 mph.
* 2 to 3 inches of rain on Cape Cod and the Islands
* Minor coastal flooding
* Moderate beach erosion
* Marine impacts, with wind gusts to 55 knots, and seas 20-25 feet over southern waters
Watches and Warnings:
* Tropical Storm Warning: Barnstable, Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties as well as near shore and coastal waters.
* Tropical Storm Watch: Dukes and Nantucket Counties and southern offshore waters.
* Gale Warning: Cape Cod Bay and coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank from 11 PM tonight to 8 PM Monday.
What we do not know at this time:
* Whether the second surge of winds on Tuesday will actually come to fruition.
* How much beach erosion impact will occur due to the prolonged influence of swell and onshore winds.
* Whether a slight shift to the north or west will maintain the winds longer into Tuesday.
The Captain of the Port, Southeastern New England, has set Port Condition X-RAY in advance of Tropical Storm HERMINE. While ports in Southeastern New England remain open to all commercial traffic, the following preparatory measures are effective immediately:
* Owners, operators or agents of all self-propelled oceangoing vessels and barges over 500 gross tons (GT) and their supporting tugs must immediately advise the Captain of the Port of their intention to remain in port or to depart.
* Commercial vessels and barges over 500 GT intending to depart port must depart not later than 24 hours prior to the arrival of gale force winds. Vessels bound for Narragansett, Mount Hope, Buzzards Bay, and Cape Cod Bay that are unable to depart 24 hours prior to the arrival of gale force winds are advised to seek an alternate destination.
* Pleasure craft are advised to seek safe harbor. Drawbridges may not be operating upon the onset of high winds or when evacuation is in progress.
The Coast Guard will continue to monitor Tropical Storm HERMINE and, if necessary, may implement preventative measures to ensure the safety of mariners, vessels, and waterfront facilities. Possible preventative measures include, but are not limited to, terminating lightering or transfer operations, rescinding permits for marine events, and directing vessel arrivals/departures to/from port. It is requested that all port managers, harbormasters and marina managers advise Mr. Kevin Blount when their facilities are at or approaching capacity for accommodating vessels seeking shelter from the approaching storm. Mr. Blount can be reached at (401) 435-2321 or (401) 339-9776 (mobile), or by email at Kevin.J.Blount@uscg.mil<mailto:Kevin.J.Blount@uscg.mil>.
Mariners in Southeastern New England should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm HERMINE over the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm HERMINE advisories are published approximately every three hours by the National Hurricane Center.
Ferry Services Update (as of 8 AM):
Steamship Authority - Anticipates the cancelation of Nantucket ferry runs sometime this afternoon, as the wind picks up. They anticipate that the Vineyard Route may also be impacted before the end of scheduled trips. All ferries are operating as scheduled at this time.
Hy-Line Cruises - Service to Martha's Vineyard has been suspended for today and Tomorrow, as well as inter-island service from Martha's Vineyard to Nantucket. Hyannis to Nantucket is still operating, however it is weather dependent.
Island Queen Falmouth - Canceled all trips Sunday and Monday, Trip by Trip Basis Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Seastreak New Bedford- Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket trips, Canceled Sunday through Tuesday, or when the Hurricane barrier in New Bedford reopens. Could be later than Tuesday depending in the impact of the storm.
Seastreak NY - New York To Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Canceled for Monday (anticipates running Sunday) Operates Friday's and Sunday's and Labor Day.
Rhode Island Fast Ferry- Quonset Point to Martha's Vineyard canceled all Ferries Sunday through Tuesday
New Bedford Hurricane Barrier is anticipating closing Sunday and anticipates reopening on Tuesday, Possible sooner or later depending on the track of the storm.
The State Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Steady State Monitoring). MEMA is in close contact with the National Weather Service, and will participate in an additional conference call with the NWS Sunday afternoon. MEMA will activate the SEOC to a Level 2 (Partial Activation) Sunday evening at 7 PM to monitor Hermine's progress, provide situational awareness to public safety partners, and coordinate assistance to cities and towns as necessary. MEMA will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Hermine and will issue an updated Situational Awareness Statement tomorrow morning or earlier as conditions warrant.
Utilize Massachusetts Alerts to receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service. Massachusetts Alerts is a free app that is available for Android and iPhones. To learn more about Massachusetts Alerts, and for information on how to download the free app onto your smartphone, visit: www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp<http://www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp>.
Utilize MEMA's real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html
For additional information and resources, visit:
Planning Unit Manager
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
400 Worcester Road
Framingham, MA 01702-5399
T: (508) 820-1421
C: (508) 988-0997