MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT
DATE: September 1, 2016
TIME: 6:30 PM
SUBJECT: Hurricane Hermine
Hurricane Hermine, currently a Category 1 hurricane located in the Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to make landfall in northern Florida tonight, cross over Florida into the Atlantic, and track northeast along the Eastern Seaboard, reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday as a tropical storm. Hermine will likely slow and stall and remain south of New England into at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. The precise track of the tropical storm as it moves away from New England is quite uncertain and all of Massachusetts remains in the so-called Cone of Error for this storm.
While the exact impacts that Hermine will have in Massachusetts is dependent on the track and strength of the system as it approaches New England, there is high confidence that there will be a period of high surf and dangerous rip currents across southern New England, likely starting Sunday and possibly extending into Tuesday. With respect to other impacts, a reasonable worst case scenario at this time is that Tropical Storm Hermine will produce conditions similar to a strong nor’easter, with 2-4 inches of rain, 50-60 mph wind gusts along the South Coast and the Islands, and minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. Riverine flooding is not expected to pose a significant threat due to ongoing drought conditions across much of the Commonwealth. Please note that the storm is still several days away from New England and that significant changes in the forecast are possible.
The below graphics from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service show the most recent forecast track, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities, and 5-day rainfall estimates for Hurricane Hermine:
The State Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Steady State Monitoring). MEMA participated in a conference call with the National Weather Service today, and will hold a conference call with the NWS again tomorrow. MEMA will also convene a call tomorrow with agencies and organizations that staff/support our Emergency Support Functions in preparation for a potential activation of the SEOC over Labor Day weekend if significant impacts from Hermine appear likely.
MEMA will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Hermine and will issue an updated Situational Awareness Statement tomorrow afternoon.
A briefing package from the National Weather Service is attached.
Utilize Massachusetts Alerts to receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service. Massachusetts Alerts is a free app that is available for Android and iPhones. To learn more about Massachusetts Alerts, and for information on how to download the free app onto your smartphone, visit: www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp.
Utilize MEMA’s real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html
For additional information and resources, visit:
Director, Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
400 Worcester Road
Framingham, MA 01702
508-820-2000 (24/7 Communications Center)